According to your Matrix, and making an extremely weak simulation by better record teams winning, same record teams win goes to home team, I've got 0 teams at .500 in conference and 4-5 making it, and 6 teams at .500 and 5-4 not making it also. I tried my best to simulate all of Week 9 games that mattered to help with tiebreakers, and I had Delavan-Darien as the 224th team in.
Looking at that it makes three games in the FRCC this Thursday very big. De Pere, Manitowoc Lincoln, and Green Bay Southwest are all 4-3 in conference. Southwest should win their game, and De Pere has a good chance (although I'll be rooting for the upset), but Manty is going to have one tough game with GB Preble (6-2, 5-2) so I see Manty missing the cut at 4-4, 4-5.
PS. There's no need to apologize longball, I know everyone here greatly appreciates what you do and how difficult it is to keep tabs on every team in Wisconsin.
I basically did the same thing, and I have 228 teams at .500 or better in conference. 3 of those finish at .500, 3-6 (Cameron, Medford, and Rapids
) and are out. 6 teams finish at .500, 4-5...Edgewood, Tomah, Manny, Tech, Altoona, and Algoma. Playing out all of their defeated conference opponent's week 9 games to figure out the tiebreaker, Algoma is out (barely). 12 teams finish at .500, 5-4 and all make it easily.
Keep in mind that since the expansion to 7 divisions, the highest number of .500 or better teams has been 231. In consecutive years 224 and 225 teams qualified. Never has a team at .500, .500 or better overall not made it.