mickjagger Show full post »
sp0rtsfan
topnotch1 wrote:


See? That's good stuff. In the first 5 years of his career, Crosby was 12/24 from 50+. Last year, he was 2/9. This year? He's 5/7. Looks an awful lot like random variation to me.


50+, I wish they would break that out to 50-54 and 55+...or something like that. At that distance, a yard or two makes a difference.
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highlightfilm
He sure was a great 14th round fantasy pick! Worth all the smack homer talk I got draft night...
The true test of a man?s character is what he does when no one is watching.
John Wooden

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dawgstyle
highlightfilm wrote:
He sure was a great 14th round fantasy pick! Worth all the smack homer talk I got draft night...


If people in my league were talking trash over a 14th round pick, I would have do everything possible to make FF miserable for them. By the 14th Round I am drafting rookies most people haven't heard of.
@2GuysFromWI

Harbaugh will have Urban Meyer retired from OSU by 2020.
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highlightfilm
dawgstyle wrote:
highlightfilm wrote:
He sure was a great 14th round fantasy pick! Worth all the smack homer talk I got draft night...


If people in my league were talking trash over a 14th round pick, I would have do everything possible to make FF miserable for them. By the 14th Round I am drafting rookies most people haven't heard of.



I thought it rather odd too but there is a lot of Crosby haters in this FF league I guess. I deposited my check today so I had the last laugh.
The true test of a man?s character is what he does when no one is watching.
John Wooden

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cameroncrazies02
For better or Worse, Thompson and MM stick with their guys. They stuck it out with Jarrett Bush year after year, punishing us by making us watch him get burned, but after he was primarily relegated to special teams, he flourished and became the clear cut captain of special teams. That vote of confidence seemed to make him play better over the last two years on defense. He's not an every down corner, but occasionally he comes in on as a nickel or dime corner and makes great plays.

Starks is another guy like that. After the SB break out year, he had some injuries and just wasn't great. Been absolutely fantastic this year and was crucial to a handful of wins.
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mrmike527
topnotch1 wrote:
db11 wrote:
topnotch1 wrote:
Nothing was worse than the inevitable social media outrage after every missed FG from Crosby last year. There was never any reason to believe his misses were anything more than bad luck and a small sample size. Calls for his head were shortsighted. It's great to see him vindicated, if nothing else because I hope it shuts up all his haters.


Bad luck? More like bad technique.

His kicks were slicing like golf shots because he was stopping his leg short on his follow-through.

No clue why that took so long to be corrected.


Sure, in the same way that every missed free throw is the result of bad technique - the shooter did something wrong, that's why it missed.

But, just like a career 78% ft shooter, there's no reason to get worked up when you miss 3-4 more than you typically would be expected to in a sample with 33 data points. It's practically guaranteed to happen at some point in your career. It's "bad luck" that his technique happened to break down relatively frequently over a short period of time. But frankly, it was most likely coincidental (even at the time) and not indicative of some long term trend.


Not really a fair statistical analysis. Let's say it's the beginning of last season and we're analyzing Crosby's career FG performance. You'd see that he averaged around 80% with a standard deviation of 4%. For those reading who are unfamiliar with statistics, the standard deviation is the measure of how much his FG % varies from year to year. It implies that 95% of all his seasons can be expected to be between 72-88%. Crosby's FG % last year was 63%, which put him four standard deviations away. On one hand, that's actually reasonably damning of Crosby. Then again, it's 5 data points, so we might be skeptical. (If you take out 4 of his misses from 50+ to bring him to his career average of 50+ attempted, he's still 2 standard deviations away, by the way).

The biggest issue for him last year was that in an 8-game stretch last year, he was 10/19. That's about 52%, and it's so far off any average he's ever had. Let's try the math a different way. Let's just say 75% of the time he makes a field goal--what are the chances that he has a stretch that is 10/19? I actually didn't know how to do the math on this, so I just did the simulation for 10,000 FGs in excel, and it happened 40 times. So less than 0.5% of any 19 FG stretch. He's attempted about 190 FGs, so that's about 10 stretches. if you multiply 99.5% to the power of 10, you get about 95%.

If those numbers went over anybody's head, here's the summary: if you go by the traditional way you would determine whether something happened by chance, even when you massage the data in Crosby's favor, it suggests something was up with him last season. But there isn't a lot of data, so I did it a different way, and I can say even if you think Crosby only hits about 75% of his FGs (which is low) there's only a 5% chance of a stretch like that in a career of Crosby's length, which most people would say means that there was something else at play than simply luck.
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topnotch1
mrmike527 wrote:


Not really a fair statistical analysis. Let's say it's the beginning of last season and we're analyzing Crosby's career FG performance. You'd see that he averaged around 80% with a standard deviation of 4%. For those reading who are unfamiliar with statistics, the standard deviation is the measure of how much his FG % varies from year to year. It implies that 95% of all his seasons can be expected to be between 72-88%. Crosby's FG % last year was 63%, which put him four standard deviations away. On one hand, that's actually reasonably damning of Crosby. Then again, it's 5 data points, so we might be skeptical. (If you take out 4 of his misses from 50+ to bring him to his career average of 50+ attempted, he's still 2 standard deviations away, by the way).

The biggest issue for him last year was that in an 8-game stretch last year, he was 10/19. That's about 52%, and it's so far off any average he's ever had. Let's try the math a different way. Let's just say 75% of the time he makes a field goal--what are the chances that he has a stretch that is 10/19? I actually didn't know how to do the math on this, so I just did the simulation for 10,000 FGs in excel, and it happened 40 times. So less than 0.5% of any 19 FG stretch. He's attempted about 190 FGs, so that's about 10 stretches. if you multiply 99.5% to the power of 10, you get about 95%.

If those numbers went over anybody's head, here's the summary: if you go by the traditional way you would determine whether something happened by chance, even when you massage the data in Crosby's favor, it suggests something was up with him last season. But there isn't a lot of data, so I did it a different way, and I can say even if you think Crosby only hits about 75% of his FGs (which is low) there's only a 5% chance of a stretch like that in a career of Crosby's length, which most people would say means that there was something else at play than simply luck.


I'm heading abroad for two weeks tomorrow morning, so I don't have time to break out my stats notes and run these numbers, but I will do it when I get back. More specifically, I'll try to find the likelihood of a kicker with a true accuracy rate of 78% ever having a 33 point sample in which he makes only 21 FGs. I don't believe it's going to be a particularly unlikely event.
Ricky Rubio will be a Pamela Anderson sized bust.

6/28/2009

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mrmike527
topnotch1 wrote:
mrmike527 wrote:


Not really a fair statistical analysis. Let's say it's the beginning of last season and we're analyzing Crosby's career FG performance. You'd see that he averaged around 80% with a standard deviation of 4%. For those reading who are unfamiliar with statistics, the standard deviation is the measure of how much his FG % varies from year to year. It implies that 95% of all his seasons can be expected to be between 72-88%. Crosby's FG % last year was 63%, which put him four standard deviations away. On one hand, that's actually reasonably damning of Crosby. Then again, it's 5 data points, so we might be skeptical. (If you take out 4 of his misses from 50+ to bring him to his career average of 50+ attempted, he's still 2 standard deviations away, by the way).

The biggest issue for him last year was that in an 8-game stretch last year, he was 10/19. That's about 52%, and it's so far off any average he's ever had. Let's try the math a different way. Let's just say 75% of the time he makes a field goal--what are the chances that he has a stretch that is 10/19? I actually didn't know how to do the math on this, so I just did the simulation for 10,000 FGs in excel, and it happened 40 times. So less than 0.5% of any 19 FG stretch. He's attempted about 190 FGs, so that's about 10 stretches. if you multiply 99.5% to the power of 10, you get about 95%.

If those numbers went over anybody's head, here's the summary: if you go by the traditional way you would determine whether something happened by chance, even when you massage the data in Crosby's favor, it suggests something was up with him last season. But there isn't a lot of data, so I did it a different way, and I can say even if you think Crosby only hits about 75% of his FGs (which is low) there's only a 5% chance of a stretch like that in a career of Crosby's length, which most people would say means that there was something else at play than simply luck.


I'm heading abroad for two weeks tomorrow morning, so I don't have time to break out my stats notes and run these numbers, but I will do it when I get back. More specifically, I'll try to find the likelihood of a kicker with a true accuracy rate of 78% ever having a 33 point sample in which he makes only 21 FGs. I don't believe it's going to be a particularly unlikely event.


Right but people weren't concerned because of Crosby's entire season--they didn't look at his stats and say "wow that year was inexcusible!" they were concerned because he missed a field goal in like 6 consecutive games. It was the 10/19 stretch that made people want to cut him.
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topnotch1
Tell that to the very vocal crowd looking to cut Crosby during training camp despite him connecting on his last 6 tries of the year. However, I'll run the numbers for both.
Ricky Rubio will be a Pamela Anderson sized bust.

6/28/2009

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