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westernwihoops
thecrackerjack wrote:
westernwihoops wrote:
thecrackerjack wrote:
johnwall1 wrote:
thecrackerjack wrote:
johnwall1 wrote:
I expected an Aquinas win, but in no way thought it would be a bench-emptying at the 1:45 mark blowout.

Maybe next year the Dairyland can get someone through the sectional. CFC is a junior led team.


Will CFC drop down to D5 next year?


That's a good question....if they do, they'll have to deal with a very good, very young Bangor team.


If they did, I could see them being a viable contender to get to Madison.


Do you have a reason to believe that CFC will drop to D5? I think that CFC and Mel-Min are the only two Dairyland teams that have actually held their ground or grown in enrollment the past 5 years or so. I know they are both on the lower end of D4, but I think Alma Center is smaller yet. I'll try to find enrollment numbers, but I don't know why they'd be dropping down a division.


I wasn't suggesting they would, but merely, asking a question. They were in D5 a couple years ago when they made it to Madison.


Ah...I see.

According to this chart, I guess it's possible, but I don't think they will be dropping down.

http://assets.ngin.com/attachments/document/0037/3164/2015-16_enrollment_chart_WIAA.pdf

Looks like D4/D5 cutoff is around 198. CFC is at 208.
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thecrackerjack
westernwihoops wrote:
thecrackerjack wrote:
westernwihoops wrote:
thecrackerjack wrote:
johnwall1 wrote:
thecrackerjack wrote:
johnwall1 wrote:
I expected an Aquinas win, but in no way thought it would be a bench-emptying at the 1:45 mark blowout.

Maybe next year the Dairyland can get someone through the sectional. CFC is a junior led team.


Will CFC drop down to D5 next year?


That's a good question....if they do, they'll have to deal with a very good, very young Bangor team.


If they did, I could see them being a viable contender to get to Madison.


Do you have a reason to believe that CFC will drop to D5? I think that CFC and Mel-Min are the only two Dairyland teams that have actually held their ground or grown in enrollment the past 5 years or so. I know they are both on the lower end of D4, but I think Alma Center is smaller yet. I'll try to find enrollment numbers, but I don't know why they'd be dropping down a division.


I wasn't suggesting they would, but merely, asking a question. They were in D5 a couple years ago when they made it to Madison.


Ah...I see.

According to this chart, I guess it's possible, but I don't think they will be dropping down.

http://assets.ngin.com/attachments/document/0037/3164/2015-16_enrollment_chart_WIAA.pdf

Looks like D4/D5 cutoff is around 198. CFC is at 208.


Unless, they have a really small class, that looks like to large of an enrollment gap. Perhaps, they are destined to be the next Dairyland team to get bounced by Aquinas in the playoffs.
Fear of the unknown is the greatest fear of all.
- Yvon Chouinard

@miedent 
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westernwihoops
Just for fun, I took a look at all of the enrollment numbers for that 1/2 of the Sectional -- teams that play at La Crosse Central for the sectional semi-final.


La Crosse Aquinas         311
Pardeeville         258
Onalaska Luther         252
Boscobel         234
Montello         223
Melrose-Mindoro         216
Necedah         215
Whitehall         215
Brookwood         213
Cochrane-Fountain City         208
Wisconsin Heights         207
Alma Center Lincoln         203
Fennimore         198


Looks like the D3/D4 enrollment line was around 325 and the D4/D5 enrollment line was 197. Could be some movement in that sub-section.
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westernwihoops
westernwihoops wrote:
Just for fun, I took a look at all of the enrollment numbers for that 1/2 of the Sectional -- teams that play at La Crosse Central for the sectional semi-final.


La Crosse Aquinas         311
Pardeeville         258
Onalaska Luther         252
Boscobel         234
Montello         223
Melrose-Mindoro         216
Necedah         215
Whitehall         215
Brookwood         213
Cochrane-Fountain City         208
Wisconsin Heights         207
Alma Center Lincoln         203
Fennimore         198


Looks like the D3/D4 enrollment line was around 325 and the D4/D5 enrollment line was 197. Could be some movement in that sub-section.


Arcadia is lingering at 329 and Westby is at 326.
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thecrackerjack
Nice research!

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
Fear of the unknown is the greatest fear of all.
- Yvon Chouinard

@miedent 
Quote 0 0
johnwall1
bullseye wrote:
CFC and Mel-Min will both be in D4 again next year.

Mel-Min vs. Aquinas... Aquinas clearly has an advantage of playing in the MVC. How can a team play D2 schools all year long and then drop down to D4 during the tournament is beyond me. I know the answer...because they can. It is to bad there isn't something that can be done with situations like this. Not taking anything away from Aquinas though, they shot the ball very well and we're clearly the better overall team.


Well, this is an easy question to answer. Mel-Min had 6 non-conference games to schedule. Aquinas had 10. Clearly Aquinas playing in the MVC, they take their lumps, but come out the other end far more battle tested. Melrose is in a weak league, that is not their fault.

The issue is who does each school choose to schedule in their non-conf. Here's sample of who Mel-Min played:
Sparta (2)
Luther
West Salem
Bangor

Only Bangor would have been expected to (and they did) have a good team when these games were scheduled.

And a sample of who Aquinas scheduled:
Xavier (D3 state runner up last year)
Sauk Prairie (D2)
DeForest (D2)
WI Rapids (D1)
Edgewood
Regis

Look at who GET schedules non-conf. Take a look at Caledonia in MN. Look at the non-conf sched of LaX Central. If you want to get better for tournament time, you have to stretch yourself and possibly take your lumps, like Aquinas did. If you want to dominate the regular season, go undefeated, be highly ranked, schedule teams like Sparta and Luther but you will likely get an early ticket home. With this talent coming up in Melrose the last few years, the talent on this team is not a surprise, no excuse for the non-conf schedule admin put together for Scafe's senior year.
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bullseye
johnwall1 wrote:
bullseye wrote:
CFC and Mel-Min will both be in D4 again next year.

Mel-Min vs. Aquinas... Aquinas clearly has an advantage of playing in the MVC. How can a team play D2 schools all year long and then drop down to D4 during the tournament is beyond me. I know the answer...because they can. It is to bad there isn't something that can be done with situations like this. Not taking anything away from Aquinas though, they shot the ball very well and we're clearly the better overall team.


Well, this is an easy question to answer. Mel-Min had 6 non-conference games to schedule. Aquinas had 10. Clearly Aquinas playing in the MVC, they take their lumps, but come out the other end far more battle tested. Melrose is in a weak league, that is not their fault.

The issue is who does each school choose to schedule in their non-conf. Here's sample of who Mel-Min played:
Sparta (2)
Luther
West Salem
Bangor

Only Bangor would have been expected to (and they did) have a good team when these games were scheduled.

And a sample of who Aquinas scheduled:
Xavier (D3 state runner up last year)
Sauk Prairie (D2)
DeForest (D2)
WI Rapids (D1)
Edgewood
Regis

Look at who GET schedules non-conf. Take a look at Caledonia in MN. Look at the non-conf sched of LaX Central. If you want to get better for tournament time, you have to stretch yourself and possibly take your lumps, like Aquinas did. If you want to dominate the regular season, go undefeated, be highly ranked, schedule teams like Sparta and Luther but you will likely get an early ticket home. With this talent coming up in Melrose the last few years, the talent on this team is not a surprise, no excuse for the non-conf schedule admin put together for Scafe's senior year.


While I agree with this, I also realize that it is hard for smaller schools (who are traditionally weaker) to schedule games against the schools who are normally strong. Why would a G-E-T,Aquinas, Central, Onalaska want to schedule a Mel-Min when many years it will be a blow out. AD's like to keep the schedule the same year in and year out, look at all the dairyland/scenic bluff/and coulee teams over the years and see how often the schedules change as far as non conference competition. GET and Mel-Min used to play each other, but because Mel-Min was weaker they dropped them.

While your examples are valid, one main thing is obvious. All the schools listed have been strong and have built up a reputation over many years.
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thecrackerjack
johnwall1 wrote:
bullseye wrote:
CFC and Mel-Min will both be in D4 again next year.

Mel-Min vs. Aquinas... Aquinas clearly has an advantage of playing in the MVC. How can a team play D2 schools all year long and then drop down to D4 during the tournament is beyond me. I know the answer...because they can. It is to bad there isn't something that can be done with situations like this. Not taking anything away from Aquinas though, they shot the ball very well and we're clearly the better overall team.


Well, this is an easy question to answer. Mel-Min had 6 non-conference games to schedule. Aquinas had 10. Clearly Aquinas playing in the MVC, they take their lumps, but come out the other end far more battle tested. Melrose is in a weak league, that is not their fault.

The issue is who does each school choose to schedule in their non-conf. Here's sample of who Mel-Min played:
Sparta (2)
Luther
West Salem
Bangor

Only Bangor would have been expected to (and they did) have a good team when these games were scheduled.

And a sample of who Aquinas scheduled:
Xavier (D3 state runner up last year)
Sauk Prairie (D2)
DeForest (D2)
WI Rapids (D1)
Edgewood
Regis

Look at who GET schedules non-conf. Take a look at Caledonia in MN. Look at the non-conf sched of LaX Central. If you want to get better for tournament time, you have to stretch yourself and possibly take your lumps, like Aquinas did. If you want to dominate the regular season, go undefeated, be highly ranked, schedule teams like Sparta and Luther but you will likely get an early ticket home. With this talent coming up in Melrose the last few years, the talent on this team is not a surprise, no excuse for the non-conf schedule admin put together for Scafe's senior year.


Does MM have anymore talent coming up through the pipeline or will it be back to rebuilding?
Fear of the unknown is the greatest fear of all.
- Yvon Chouinard

@miedent 
Quote 0 0
bullseye
thecrackerjack wrote:
johnwall1 wrote:
bullseye wrote:
CFC and Mel-Min will both be in D4 again next year.

Mel-Min vs. Aquinas... Aquinas clearly has an advantage of playing in the MVC. How can a team play D2 schools all year long and then drop down to D4 during the tournament is beyond me. I know the answer...because they can. It is to bad there isn't something that can be done with situations like this. Not taking anything away from Aquinas though, they shot the ball very well and we're clearly the better overall team.


Well, this is an easy question to answer. Mel-Min had 6 non-conference games to schedule. Aquinas had 10. Clearly Aquinas playing in the MVC, they take their lumps, but come out the other end far more battle tested. Melrose is in a weak league, that is not their fault.

The issue is who does each school choose to schedule in their non-conf. Here's sample of who Mel-Min played:
Sparta (2)
Luther
West Salem
Bangor

Only Bangor would have been expected to (and they did) have a good team when these games were scheduled.

And a sample of who Aquinas scheduled:
Xavier (D3 state runner up last year)
Sauk Prairie (D2)
DeForest (D2)
WI Rapids (D1)
Edgewood
Regis

Look at who GET schedules non-conf. Take a look at Caledonia in MN. Look at the non-conf sched of LaX Central. If you want to get better for tournament time, you have to stretch yourself and possibly take your lumps, like Aquinas did. If you want to dominate the regular season, go undefeated, be highly ranked, schedule teams like Sparta and Luther but you will likely get an early ticket home. With this talent coming up in Melrose the last few years, the talent on this team is not a surprise, no excuse for the non-conf schedule admin put together for Scafe's senior year.


Does MM have anymore talent coming up through the pipeline or will it be back to rebuilding?


I'm not from there. I merely follow area basketball teams. From the people I have spoken to there's not a lot of talent coming through. Some decent kids, but no Scaifes or Christopherson's either. Christopherson will be back and a couple decent options,but they will not be near the team they were this year. They will miss Scaife, Lockington and D. Christopherson a lot. MM will likely be good enough to make a run for the conference, but not a chance at state. In small schools it usually goes in waves. BT looks like they will likely struggle again next year too.
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johnwall1
Melrose's window has closed. EC returns and he is excellent, but not much else, and nothing like Scafe, etc coming. I think M-M will still be relevant in the Dairyland, but no longer on a regional or state level.

CFC will be the class of the conference. B-T is going to be way down next year with the loss of Zinn, others, and a very poor JV.

As for the sectional, it will be CFC (returns all but 1 regular) or Aquinas (terrific young backcourt returns) but neither is likely to get past a Darlington squad that returns their top 7 players next season.
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johnwall1
johnwall1 wrote:
Melrose's window has closed. EC returns and he is excellent, but not much else, and nothing like Scafe, etc coming. I think M-M will still be relevant in the Dairyland, but no longer on a regional or state level.

CFC will be the class of the conference. B-T is going to be way down next year with the loss of Zinn, others, and a very poor JV.

As for the sectional, it will be CFC (returns all but 1 regular) or Aquinas (terrific young backcourt returns) but neither is likely to get past a Darlington squad that returns their top 7 players next season.


Guess we had nailed this....this was from last year around this time....should have gone to Vegas. Here's to a prosperous off-season for all our teams. That CFC team was so good, they gave Darlington one heck of a game, that was fun.
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thecrackerjack
johnwall1 wrote:
johnwall1 wrote:
Melrose's window has closed. EC returns and he is excellent, but not much else, and nothing like Scafe, etc coming. I think M-M will still be relevant in the Dairyland, but no longer on a regional or state level.

CFC will be the class of the conference. B-T is going to be way down next year with the loss of Zinn, others, and a very poor JV.

As for the sectional, it will be CFC (returns all but 1 regular) or Aquinas (terrific young backcourt returns) but neither is likely to get past a Darlington squad that returns their top 7 players next season.


Guess we had nailed this....this was from last year around this time....should have gone to Vegas. Here's to a prosperous off-season for all our teams. That CFC team was so good, they gave Darlington one heck of a game, that was fun.


You deserve a High Five for that prediction! It was spot on!
Fear of the unknown is the greatest fear of all.
- Yvon Chouinard

@miedent 
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westernwihoops
Well...what is next year's prediction, johnwall1?

Also, any predictions we can actually profit from? Let's see if we can make some money from your prognostication skills.
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johnwall1
westernwihoops wrote:
Well...what is next year's prediction, johnwall1?

Also, any predictions we can actually profit from? Let's see if we can make some money from your prognostication skills.


If you saw my NCAA brackets, you'd know I am NOT the guy to ask when it comes to sports that you can make money betting on. I do follow HS BB pretty closely though and generally know talent and coaching when I see it. I'll take a look at returning teams from this area's regional/sectional and make my predictions. Just don't bet on it[rotfl]
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