oldballcoach1
An 1/8 of the way through the season - where do the Brewers stand??  

Actually, 23 games in and a 13-10 record.  With all things being considered, the record is pretty good.  The schedule has been brutally tough.  Dodgers for 7 games, Cards for 7 games, and the Cubs for 3 is a pretty tough run.  And, to be back in St. Louis to start another 3 game series seems like overkill.  Even though the Brewers have had success against the Cards, those series are always tough.  And, a west coast trip early in the season is always tough on teams.  

Offensively, the good - guess we should say great - Christian Yelich.  Wow, just wow!  Nothing else needs to be said.  Cain and Grandal have produced and those 3 have pretty much carried the offense.  Moose has come up with some bigs hits and he is going to be a .250 hitter at best.  That isn't going to change.  But, with Braun hitting .189, Shaw at .178 and Aguilar at .136, this team can not win in the long haul with that type of production from these guys.  

Pitching - never thought I would say Zach Davies is this teams best starter.  After him, things are not on solid ground yet.  Chacin always flirts with trouble and the young guys have not held up yet.  Woodruff will be fine, but Peralta is out and Burnes imploded and we are back to Anderson and Houser having to start.  The bullpen, Hader is Hader and he will be fine.  After him, Guerra and Albers are the best we have and that is scary.  Claudio is serviceable, Wilson has been walking the tight rope in nearly every appearance, and Barnes has been better, but that wasn't hard.  A lot is going to depend on Jeffress returning back to form.  

Moving ahead, the schedule lightens a bit for a couple weeks, but a huge road trip to the Cubs, Phils, and Braves in mid May will be an important one.  The next 25 games will give us a good read on this team.  If the middle of the order is still hitting under .200, teams will work around Yelich.   And, if the pitching staff is still trying to find its way, things could start to get interesting.  Maybe Jimmy Nelson is back by mid May and maybe Corbin Burnes figures out his stuff.  Those will be important pieces to add to the rotation. 

We will know a lot about this team after the next 25 games.  Hopefully, some of the questions surrounding this team have cleared up and things are rolling.  
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db11
The pitching has been far from great, but I'm willing to wait a while before pushing any panic button. They have faced a murderers' row of offenses and nearly every little mistake has been punished.

Offensively, is it odd that the one I'm worried about the most is actually Shaw? Is this a regression to a new mean?
https://twitter.com/barwickipedia - Follow me. Because we all need a bit of sports snark in our lives.

"Doin' right ain't got no end."
-The Outlaw Josey Wales

"'Allegedly' is right, Mr. Polian. I have a hole in my ear drum, I'd never go for a swim, no matter how drunk me is."
-Pat McAfee
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yzerman1
I think the amazing start to the season by Christian Yelich are covering up a lot of the problems this team is facing.   The starting pitching is my biggest concern.  The starters have an ERA of 5.62, which is only better than the Mets(5.64) so far this season.   Zach Davies has been great but everyone else has been way below average.  There are no real internal options to fix this problem other than they just need to get better.   Woodruff and Chacin have ERAs almost approaching 6.00 and Freddy Peralta has an ERA over 7.00.   Their minor league system is weak right now so making a trade to get better will be extremely difficult.   Jesus Aguilar has a slash line of .220/.307/.374 since the All Star game last year which is concerning for a guy who was stuck in the minors forever.  You never know when the clock strikes midnight and you go back to what you were for most of your career.
You don't pick the moment, the moment picks you.
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roadkill1
Gio in the fold?

RK
"So what is big is not always the Trout nor the Deer but the chance, the being there. And what is full is not necessarily the creel nor the freezer, but the memory." ~ Aldo Leopold
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yzerman1
roadkill1 wrote:
Gio in the fold?

RK


The Brewers are the only team in the National League that average less than 5 innings from their starters.   Gio didn't pitch at all in Spring Training so hopefully they don't immediately put him in the majors.   There's a reason Spring Training is six weeks long and it seems that pitchers don't use that time to build up their arms struggle early in the season.  
You don't pick the moment, the moment picks you.
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yzerman1
The Brewers have played 26 games so far this year and have a team ERA of 5.27 which is last in the National League.  The starters have an ERA of 5.84 which is also the worst in the NL by nearly run over the next worst team.  Last year they had the fourth best ERA in the National League at 3.73 and the starters had an ERA of 3.92.  The Cincinnati Reds in 2018 had the second worst ERA in the National League at 4.63 and their starters had the second worst ERA at 5.02.  So far in 2019, which is still very early, the Reds have the second best team ERA at 3.29 and second best starting ERA at 3.30.   I am usually pretty skeptical of how much of a difference hitting and pitching coaches truly matter to the success of their respective position groupings.  However, in this case it appears so far that Derek Johnson is that difference maker. The early turn around for the Reds  is amazing because that pitching was a dumpster fire last year.
You don't pick the moment, the moment picks you.
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cgrade23
The pitching disheartening through the first 26 games and it does not appear that it will get any better anytime soon.  The starters are not good, the bullpen, once a strength, is shaky at best.  Hader cannot pitch every single night, so someone else needs to step up soon.
Braun, Shaw, and Aguilar are beyond disappointing to this point.  Moose isn't hitting for average and Arcia is about where one would expect.  Yelich, Grandal, and Cain are the only ones that are hitting well, though I do expect Grandal to regress to the mean.  Hopefully getting through this meat grinder of the first 26 games at .500 leads to better things in the future, but the pitching woes does not lend to a lot of encouragement.
"If I had nine of my fingers missing I wouldn't type any slower." ~ Mitch Hedberg
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db11
yzerman1 wrote:
The Brewers have played 26 games so far this year and have a team ERA of 5.27 which is last in the National League.  The starters have an ERA of 5.84 which is also the worst in the NL by nearly run over the next worst team.  Last year they had the fourth best ERA in the National League at 3.73 and the starters had an ERA of 3.92.  The Cincinnati Reds in 2018 had the second worst ERA in the National League at 4.63 and their starters had the second worst ERA at 5.02.  So far in 2019, which is still very early, the Reds have the second best team ERA at 3.29 and second best starting ERA at 3.30.   I am usually pretty skeptical of how much of a difference hitting and pitching coaches truly matter to the success of their respective position groupings.  However, in this case it appears so far that Derek Johnson is that difference maker. The early turn around for the Reds  is amazing because that pitching was a dumpster fire last year.


One team acquired some quality pitching in the off-season.

The other let pitchers go (also lost another to a season-ending injury) and attempted to replace with young arms from within.

Johnson seems like a bit of a pitcher whisperer at the moment (he'll probably end up getting fired in a few years, these things are cyclical), but everybody is overlooking that the Reds's FO made a concerted effort to improve a weakness through off-season acquisition.

Meanwhile Stearns and Counsell were too smart for their own good it looks like.
https://twitter.com/barwickipedia - Follow me. Because we all need a bit of sports snark in our lives.

"Doin' right ain't got no end."
-The Outlaw Josey Wales

"'Allegedly' is right, Mr. Polian. I have a hole in my ear drum, I'd never go for a swim, no matter how drunk me is."
-Pat McAfee
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yzerman1
db11 wrote:


One team acquired some quality pitching in the off-season.

The other let pitchers go (also lost another to a season-ending injury) and attempted to replace with young arms from within.

Johnson seems like a bit of a pitcher whisperer at the moment (he'll probably end up getting fired in a few years, these things are cyclical), but everybody is overlooking that the Reds's FO made a concerted effort to improve a weakness through off-season acquisition.

Meanwhile Stearns and Counsell were too smart for their own good it looks like.


Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark are quality pitchers?  Neither of these guys were very good last year couple of years.  Gray had an ERA of 4.90 last year and Roark had an ERA of 4.34 last year.   It's only been 5 starts for each but each has an ERA down over a run from last year.  Too early to tell if they are lucky right now or Johnson is making a difference for them.  The Brewers biggest problem in my opinion was not having any starting pitching depth.  You probably need 8 starters to make it through a season now.  They really only had 6 major league ready starters on their roster to start the year.  The other thing I think was foolish was to think that all of the young guys would be successful as starters because they had some success pitching out of the bullpen last year.  Getting through six innings as opposed to just one inning as a reliever is a huge difference.  You had to expect some bumps in the road.
You don't pick the moment, the moment picks you.
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roadkill1
Kind of early for the "DONE CLUB" ain't it?


RK
"So what is big is not always the Trout nor the Deer but the chance, the being there. And what is full is not necessarily the creel nor the freezer, but the memory." ~ Aldo Leopold
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db11
yzerman1 wrote:


Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark are quality pitchers?  Neither of these guys were very good last year couple of years.  Gray had an ERA of 4.90 last year and Roark had an ERA of 4.34 last year.   It's only been 5 starts for each but each has an ERA down over a run from last year.  Too early to tell if they are lucky right now or Johnson is making a difference for them.  The Brewers biggest problem in my opinion was not having any starting pitching depth.  You probably need 8 starters to make it through a season now.  They really only had 6 major league ready starters on their roster to start the year.  The other thing I think was foolish was to think that all of the young guys would be successful as starters because they had some success pitching out of the bullpen last year.  Getting through six innings as opposed to just one inning as a reliever is a huge difference.  You had to expect some bumps in the road.


It's better than hoping and praying with unproven arms. And in today's baseball anything sub-4.5 ERA is adequate. Means they're usually exiting the game with ~3 runs on the board for the opposition.

Also, what was the deal with the Brewers shifiting from hard-thrower after hard-thrower in the pen last year, to a bunch of finesse guys this year?
https://twitter.com/barwickipedia - Follow me. Because we all need a bit of sports snark in our lives.

"Doin' right ain't got no end."
-The Outlaw Josey Wales

"'Allegedly' is right, Mr. Polian. I have a hole in my ear drum, I'd never go for a swim, no matter how drunk me is."
-Pat McAfee
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oldballcoach1
db11 wrote:


It's better than hoping and praying with unproven arms. And in today's baseball anything sub-4.5 ERA is adequate. Means they're usually exiting the game with ~3 runs on the board for the opposition.

Also, what was the deal with the Brewers shifiting from hard-thrower after hard-thrower in the pen last year, to a bunch of finesse guys this year?


I agree with the movement from the hard throwers to the finesse guys is a step backwards.  It goes a long way when you can bring it at 95-96 instead of 91-92.  However, there isn't a lot of options inside the organization, so a reach outside had to be done.  Wilson is hittable at 92.  Jeffress coming back will soon put him in place to work the set up role will help.  But, the subtraction of Burnes and Woodruff's 96 has had a domino effect for sure.  

I would take Tanner Roark and Sonny Gray right now without a question.  
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mickjagger


I agree with the movement from the hard throwers to the finesse guys is a step backwards.  It goes a long way when you can bring it at 95-96 instead of 91-92.  However, there isn't a lot of options inside the organization, so a reach outside had to be done.  Wilson is hittable at 92.  Jeffress coming back will soon put him in place to work the set up role will help.  But, the subtraction of Burnes and Woodruff's 96 has had a domino effect for sure.  

I would take Tanner Roark and Sonny Gray right now without a question.  
Wade Miley, we hardly knew ye ...
Wisconsin Sports Network Hall of Fame Inductee, 2012
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dfnewburry
More we are doomed reaction from the peanut gallery , considering the injuries in the pitching staff the Brewers at .500 should be consider a miracle .








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