cameroncrazies02
RealGM came out with an article today that stated 34% of lottery picks from 04'-08' are already out of the league. I thought I'd dissect this a little more. The classic line is that players can be most fairly judged 4 years into their career so that means you can adequately gauge a player up to the 2010 draft class. So here's my stab at that evaluation for the lotteries from 05-10...

The breakdown will be as follows from draft classes 05'-10'-
-Players who have been multiple all-stars
-Players who have been one time all-stars
-Players who are currently starters
-Players still on an NBA roster
-Players out of the league

2005-
Multiple all-stars-2
One all-star-3
Starters-5
Still rostered-8
Out-6

2006-
Multiple all-stars-2
One all-star-2
Starters-3
Still rostered-8
Out-6

2007-
Multiple all-stars-3
One all-star-3
Starters-7
Still rostered-10
Out-4

2008-
Multiple all-stars-3
One all-star-4
Starters-7
Still rostered-13
Out-1

2009-
Multiple all-stars-2
One all-star-4
Starters-8
Still rostered-12
Out-1

2010-
Multiple all-stars-1
One all-star-2
Starters-7
Still rostered-13
Out-1

Some of these numbers are skewed. For example: Demarcus Cousins has yet to be named an all-star, yet probably should've been at least once if not twice already. Additionally, the number of players "out" from 08-10 is only 1 per year, however many players are given second chances. There are also a number of players that are considered "rostered" but are barely hanging on. It should be noted as well that players who are multiple all stars were also counted as "one all stars" so it averages out to less than 1 player per year from 05'-10' that has made only one all star game. There are 37 "starters" from 05-10 meaning, you have a about a 40% chance of drafting a starter 5 years down the road. Some of those starters are barely starters as well. You have a 38% chance of drafting a player who, 7-9 years from the year they were drafted, are out of the league.

When I have more time, I'll also do this for non-lottery and non-drafted players.
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mstein34
excuse my laziness but; how many of those who are out of the league, were straight from HS, or more recently, 1-and-done players?

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diener34
Whats the average career of a NBA player?

The thing about the NBA is that lottery picks aren't needed to win a championship. Free Agency is so strong in the NBA, as you only need 1 superstar added to an average team to compete.

Almost every single "superstar" is a lottery pick. If you don't get one of those, someway, somehow, you can't win.

It's not that lottery picks are overrated, its that the lottery is the best chance for most teams to improve, and its still very hard to do. As long as free agency and luxury tax exist, the lottery won't mean much.
Quote 0 0
mrmike527
diener34 wrote:
Whats the average career of a NBA player?

The thing about the NBA is that lottery picks aren't needed to win a championship. Free Agency is so strong in the NBA, as you only need 1 superstar added to an average team to compete.

Almost every single "superstar" is a lottery pick. If you don't get one of those, someway, somehow, you can't win.

It's not that lottery picks are overrated, its that the lottery is the best chance for most teams to improve, and its still very hard to do. As long as free agency and luxury tax exist, the lottery won't mean much.


I don't understand what you're saying. There are probably 7-8 teams in the league that can get a superstar without a lottery pick. So then wouldn't the lottery mean a lot?
Quote 0 0
diener34
mrmike527 wrote:
diener34 wrote:
Whats the average career of a NBA player?

The thing about the NBA is that lottery picks aren't needed to win a championship. Free Agency is so strong in the NBA, as you only need 1 superstar added to an average team to compete.

Almost every single "superstar" is a lottery pick. If you don't get one of those, someway, somehow, you can't win.

It's not that lottery picks are overrated, its that the lottery is the best chance for most teams to improve, and its still very hard to do. As long as free agency and luxury tax exist, the lottery won't mean much.


I don't understand what you're saying. There are probably 7-8 teams in the league that can get a superstar without a lottery pick. So then wouldn't the lottery mean a lot?


Every good player comes from the lottery, so by itself, yes, its as important as anything. However, picking in the lottery is overrated because the teams that pick the good players don't do anything with them.

If you look back lets say 20 years of title winning lottery picks, what do you have?

Dwayne Wade
Dirk Nowitzki - took 11 years for it to happen

All the studs of today's NBA are either waiting to win a title or on a different team.

Teams winning the titles aren't picking in the lottery. Hell the Heat totally threw away a #2 pick 5 years ago on Michael Beasley, but it doesn't matter because they bought their talent.
Quote 0 0
mrmike527
diener34 wrote:
mrmike527 wrote:
diener34 wrote:
Whats the average career of a NBA player?

The thing about the NBA is that lottery picks aren't needed to win a championship. Free Agency is so strong in the NBA, as you only need 1 superstar added to an average team to compete.

Almost every single "superstar" is a lottery pick. If you don't get one of those, someway, somehow, you can't win.

It's not that lottery picks are overrated, its that the lottery is the best chance for most teams to improve, and its still very hard to do. As long as free agency and luxury tax exist, the lottery won't mean much.


I don't understand what you're saying. There are probably 7-8 teams in the league that can get a superstar without a lottery pick. So then wouldn't the lottery mean a lot?


Every good player comes from the lottery, so by itself, yes, its as important as anything. However, picking in the lottery is overrated because the teams that pick the good players don't do anything with them.

If you look back lets say 20 years of title winning lottery picks, what do you have?

Dwayne Wade
Dirk Nowitzki - took 11 years for it to happen

All the studs of today's NBA are either waiting to win a title or on a different team.

Teams winning the titles aren't picking in the lottery. Hell the Heat totally threw away a #2 pick 5 years ago on Michael Beasley, but it doesn't matter because they bought their talent.


The teams winning titles are picking in the lottery for their cornerstones, then getting their other pieces outside the draft. Lakers won with Kobe as their best player, he was a lottery pick. Mavs won with Dirk, lottery pick. The best player on the Celtics was Paul Pierce, a lottery pick. Spurs won a handful built around Duncan, a lottery pick. The Pistons won in '04 without a lottery pick, and the Lakers won 3-straight with Shaq (who they got as a Free Agent). But before that you have more Duncan, a bunch of Jordan (lottery pick), some Hakeem (lottery pick), Isiah Thomas (lottery pick)--how far back do you want to go?

Since '94, there have been six teams to win without a lottery pick that they drafted (or essentially drafted, like Dirk and Kobe) as their best player. That's 6 out of 20. Two are the Heat, though it's disingenuous to pretend they aren't built around a lotter pick, because there is zero chance they get LeBron without their lottery pick, Wade. One is the Pistons, and three are the Shaq-Lakers, which did have Kobe, but which are probably a fair example of a team that was built through basic acquisition of a superstar through FA.
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topnotch1
mrmike527 wrote:


The teams winning titles are picking in the lottery for their cornerstones, then getting their other pieces outside the draft. Lakers won with Kobe as their best player, he was a lottery pick. Mavs won with Dirk, lottery pick. The best player on the Celtics was Kevin Garnett, a lottery pick. Spurs won a handful built around Duncan, a lottery pick. The Pistons won in '04 without a lottery pick, and the Lakers won 3-straight with Shaq (who they got as a Free Agent). But before that you have more Duncan, a bunch of Jordan (lottery pick), some Hakeem (lottery pick), Isiah Thomas (lottery pick)--how far back do you want to go?

Since '94, there have been six teams to win without a lottery pick that they drafted (or essentially drafted, like Dirk and Kobe) as their best player. That's 6 out of 20. Two are the Heat, though it's disingenuous to pretend they aren't built around a lotter pick, because there is zero chance they get LeBron without their lottery pick, Wade. One is the Pistons, and three are the Shaq-Lakers, which did have Kobe, but which are probably a fair example of a team that was built through basic acquisition of a superstar through FA.


Fixed

The study is interesting, but what does a raw percentage of draft choices who are out of the league tell us? Very little. The implication is that there are other methods of team building that work just as well or better, but that's a pretty specious claim that would need to be proven.

Also, it's ridiculous to lump all lottery picks together. Nobody tanks in the hope of snagging #12 overall. A top 3 pick in this years draft is off the charts valuable.
Ricky Rubio will be a Pamela Anderson sized bust.

6/28/2009

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