yzerman1
The 2019 trade deadline is three weeks away.  This year there is only one trade deadline.  The passing players through waivers to complete a trade is a thing of the past.  The Brewers minor league system is not very good right now.  Most of the reputable sites that rate prospects have them in the bottom 10 in all of baseball.  I am providing two links to sites that evaluate prospects, Fangraphs and MLB Pipeleine.  Fangraphs had the Brewers system at #17 before the season started.


https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&team=mil

MLB Pipeline had the Brewers system at #23 before the season started.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=mil

There has been a lot of talk of Maurico Dubon lately.  This is the average slash line in the Pacific Coast League this year:  .275/.352/.473.  The average OPS is .825.  What Dubon is doing is basically average for that league, .307/.343/.491.  I am not a numbers guy.  I put more stock in tools, talent and upside.  I am more interested in what a player can become rather what they have already done.

Right now there are only 8 teams that are definitely going to be sellers:  Toronto, Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle, Miami, New York Mets,  and San Francisco.  There a few teams still on the bubble and probably at least 15 that are in post season contention.  In my opinion, it's not a very good trade market right now and with so few teams truly out of it, you will probably have to overpay to get the player you want.   The one thing that every team needs is pitching.  Unfortunately, most of the pitching is mediocre at best.  

My thought for the Brewers at the trade deadline is to basically do nothing.  I don't think any of the pitchers out there right now are going to make that big a difference versus what it will cost to acquire such players.  If they are going to go after anyone, I would like to see Freddy Galvis or Zach Greinke.   It won't take much talent to get either player.  Greinke can simply be had by picking up a majority of his contract, which is a lot!!  Love to hear what everyone else thinks the Brewers strategy should be for the deadline.
If you want to drink all day, you have to start in the morning.
Quote 0 0
blade12
I am preparing to be a seller.

They lose these guys in FA: Grandal, Moose, Chacin, Anderson, Jeffress and Albers

They also have these guys entering arbi so they could keep some but with a pay raise and how many of these guys deserve that?
Knebel, Shaw, Nelson, Davies, Perez, Guerra, Pina, Claudio, Aguilar, Suter, Gamel, Barnes, Arcia, Saladino, Spangenberg

On my list I'd keep Knebel, Guera, Pina, Claudio, Aguilar, Gamel and Arcia
Quote 0 0
blade12
They have too many holes to fill with no help other than maybe Dubon in the minors. I don't like what is on the horizon for this team and I would sacrifice the rest of this year for a chance to be competitive and better for the next 2-3 years.  Just how I feel about it right now.  Now if the SP gets going and Chacin, Burnes and Peralta come around in the second half that would be great.

Chance they win the Central - fair
Chance they secure a WC slot - less than winning the division
Chance they advance to the NLCS - slim
Chance they beat the Dodgers - 0
Quote 1 0
oldballcoach1
The Brewers are in a tough spot right now.  I don't think Stearns is going to do any selling.  Even though I agree that the chances of advancing as far as last year seem remote, I think he knows that the fans are expecting a run - ticket sales are running high as usual - and if he sends Moose and Grandal packing - people are going to look at it as him throwing in the towel.  

If they are buyers - the top trade chips  -  Peralta, Dubon, Ray, Erceg, Turang, Stokes Jr. Supak and Zach Brown.  
If they are sellers - Moose, Grandal, Albers, Chacin, Claudio, Anderson, Arcia, and Thames.

I think in the end, Stearns will be a fringe buyer.  Guys like I listed in another post - Sam Dyson, Jake Diekman, Roenis Elias, and Ken Giles are relievers that won't cost much to get them.  Some are controlled into next season.  Andrew Casher and Craig Stammen as a couple of starters.  

Lets play what if - As a buyer - Brewers send Corey Ray and Marcos Diplan to Toronto for Ken Giles.  Giles would be arbitration eligible next season and is making $6.3 million this year and would get a small raise next year.  

Lets play what if - As a seller - Brewers send Yasmani Grandal to Cleveland for SP Zack Plesac - 1B prospect Bobby Bradley - and minor league reliever James Karincheck.  Cleveland is getting hot and healthy and could use a bat in the middle of the order.  The Brewers get a young starter in Plesac who is throwing it really well right now, Bradley has huge power potential and a lefty bat would play well in Miller Park and Karincheck throws it a 100 - but does have control issues.  This nets a quality young starter, potential at 1B, and a hard throwing reliever.  Plesac would step right into the rotation, Bradley is maybe a year away and Karincheck is at least as good as what is there now on the San Antonio train of relievers.  

These are just playing what if and who knows if either trade works.  If this team goes 5-12 or something in the next weeks - then I am for moving a piece or two.  If they go 12-5 and are right there on July 31 - then a move for a starter and a reliever somehow have to happen.  
Quote 0 0
yzerman1
This wouldn't be a trade, but work out an extension with Moustakas.  He has struggled to get a decent contract as a free agent the last two years and will turn 31 later this year.  I think 3 years and somewhere between 30 and 40 million gets it done.  There isn't a better place for him other than Milwaukee.
If you want to drink all day, you have to start in the morning.
Quote 1 0
blade12
yzerman1 wrote:
This wouldn't be a trade, but work out an extension with Moustakas.  He has struggled to get a decent contract as a free agent the last two years and will turn 31 later this year.  I think 3 years and somewhere between 30 and 40 million gets it done.  There isn't a better place for him other than Milwaukee.


I was thinking along the same lines.  Tough FA market, place for him to play everyday, money from Thames, Anderson and Shaw next year is about $17.5mil/yr.
Quote 0 0
oldballcoach1
I am not opposed to an extension for Moose, especially if they could do 3 years and $36 million.  That isn't excessive for a good 3B and 30 hr guy.  I think he is more likely to want to stay in Milwaukee as opposed to Grandal.  Grandal will get paid a lot by someone.  By extending Moose though, that closes the book on Travis Shaw.  Not that it is a bad thing, but I am not sure Stearns is ready to do that.  

The next two weeks are hugely important and will be telling.  12 home games - vs. Giants, Braves, Reds and Cubs.  6 games on the road - 4 in Arizona and 2 in Oakland.  18 games.  Lets say they go 12-6 and that might be enough to stay right near the top of the division.  Stearns will and probably should buy.  9-9 probably means being 4 or 5 games back and Stearns is going to be in a tougher spot. I think he still buys - and likely he goes all in for a guy like Bumgartner and Will Smith.  If they go 6-12, then that probably puts them 8 to 9  games out and in big trouble.  I don't think he will, but Stearns should sell at that point. He could though move some fringe guys - Chacin, Thames, Anderson could get a young prospect back.  
Quote 0 0
blade12
I am not opposed to an extension for Moose, especially if they could do 3 years and $36 million.  That isn't excessive for a good 3B and 30 hr guy.  I think he is more likely to want to stay in Milwaukee as opposed to Grandal.  Grandal will get paid a lot by someone.  By extending Moose though, that closes the book on Travis Shaw.  Not that it is a bad thing, but I am not sure Stearns is ready to do that.  

The next two weeks are hugely important and will be telling.  12 home games - vs. Giants, Braves, Reds and Cubs.  6 games on the road - 4 in Arizona and 2 in Oakland.  18 games.  Lets say they go 12-6 and that might be enough to stay right near the top of the division.  Stearns will and probably should buy.  9-9 probably means being 4 or 5 games back and Stearns is going to be in a tougher spot. I think he still buys - and likely he goes all in for a guy like Bumgartner and Will Smith.  If they go 6-12, then that probably puts them 8 to 9  games out and in big trouble.  I don't think he will, but Stearns should sell at that point. He could though move some fringe guys - Chacin, Thames, Anderson could get a young prospect back.  


Does Shaw play 1B next year? Aguillar vs LHP and Shaw vs RHP?  It's an option although maybe an expensive one if Shaw gets a raise in arbi and is making $5-$6 mil to sit half the time.  

Lot's of possibilities to play out. The next 2+ weeks are crucial.
Quote 0 0
oldballcoach1
Shaw could be a 1B.  I think how 1B plays out depends on Aguilar.  If he comes around and gets back to near his production of last year, then 1B doesn't really become a big need.  But, if he continues to flounder - then Stearns has to address 1B by finding someone to play 1B everyday.  I know CC likes the platoon thing, but 1B seems like a spot that you find a guy - a guy that can hit righties and lefties - can hit 30 hr's - and plays everyday.  If it isn't Aguilar, then I don't think there is anyone in the organization that fits that mold - next year or even 3-4 years from now.  
Quote 0 0
yzerman1
A couple things on a few players and their contracts.  The Brewers have a club option on Eric Thames next year that is 7.5 million.  Right now, they would be foolish to not pick that up.  Chase Anderson has a club option next year for 8.5 million that will probably be picked up.  Jeremy Jeffress has a club option for next year at 4.3 million.  The Jeffress contract could go either way right now.
If you want to drink all day, you have to start in the morning.
Quote 0 0
diener34
Trade:
Guerra for an older AAA reclemation project
Albers for a young single A upside guy
Grandal for an actual real top 10 team prospect
Claudio for a single A upside guy

Call up
Nottingham
Sanchez
Jackson
Williams
Quote 0 0
oldballcoach1
Gio Gonzalez throws 48 pitches last night and gives up 2 runs on 4 hits over 2 innings.  Not a great first rehab start stat wise, but he threw  33 strikes and he was more worried about getting back into game mode than pitching to win the game.  Guessing he will get 2 more starts and then be back, so he may be pushed back all the way to the end of the month.  

Lots out there yesterday about Noah Syndergaard and the Brewers being one team that has checked on him.  He has not had a good year so far and for some reason, is giving up solid contact.  He is still throwing 98 and seems healthy.  His price seems to have fallen some from last season.  Last year, it sounded as if the Mets would not settle for anything less than having Hiura involved and that didn't happen then and won't happen now. 

Wonder if a deal of Peralta, Ray, Supak, and Henry would get him.  Peralta has to be a part of the deal and I would guess Ray or Turang would have to be also.  Maybe both.  

For me, Syndergaard is at the top of the get list if Stearns if going after a starter.  He is affordable contract wise - $6+ million and will head to arbitration and the Brewers would have control of him for a couple more seasons.  Despite not having good results this year, he has all of the makings of a top starter. He can be dominating when things are going right.  
Quote 0 0
roadkill1
If the Brewers could get;
Syndagard
Grienke
Smith

And an OF

I believe that would be affordable comparatively speaking and would get the job done.

Stan b
"So what is big is not always the Trout nor the Deer but the chance, the being there. And what is full is not necessarily the creel nor the freezer, but the memory." ~ Aldo Leopold
Quote 0 0
yzerman1
The Mets are not going to trade Syndergaard unless the offer just blows them away.  Syndergaard hasn't really been good since 2016 and they would be selling him for 50 cents on the dollar.  I think they hope he pitches well the next two months and reestablishes some value and they can trade this off season.  If he doesn't turn it around, then the return wouldn't be any different than it would be if they traded him now.  I think if they would be willing to pick up 40 million of what is still owed to Greinke, Arizona would trade him and it wouldn't require a huge prospect return.  Greinke can block trades to 15 clubs, the Brewers are not on that list, which will be a big obstacle in trading him.  

The biggest problem the Brewers have in making any type of trade is that Hiura isn't really available and that gap to their next prospect in talent is huge.  The prospect rankings really tell a lot about the Brewers system.  The most important thing in those rankings is what they see as the future potential of the prospects.  This is how prospect grades correlate to future success:

45Low End Reg/Platoon0.8 to 1.5
50Avg Everyday Player1.6 to 2.4
55Above Avg Reg2.5 to 3.3
60All Star3.4 to 4.9

Hiura is a 60 grade and only Lutz and Ray got a 50.  My own rankings, from actually seeing them play this year, is Turang should be #2 and have a 50 grade.  Ray would be #5 and have 45 grade.  It's hard to make any trades when your minor league system only has two guys who project to be an average everyday player. 
If you want to drink all day, you have to start in the morning.
Quote 0 0
oldballcoach1
Because of the lack of top end prospects, that is why I think Freddie Peralta is a part of any deal for a guy like Syndergaard.  I think that the deal that includes Peralta and Ray is a starting point.  From there, if they need to move Turang and/or Lutz to do it - then fine. If this team is in the thick of it at the end of the month, then they have to go get a top end guy.  And, really, if they lose Peralta, Turang, Ray, and or Lutz - it doesn't really harm the team now.  

Peralta - he may be better suited for the bullpen and he may never develop into a starter.  
Turang - years out from being in Milwaukee.  3 at least.  And with Dubon and Hiura, and Arcia in the middle now, they are set there for even beyond 3 years. 
Ray - can't get to Milwaukee with the configuration of the Brewer OF right now.  Nothing more than a 4th OF guy for at least another year.  
Lutz - like Ray - faces a glut of OF competition.  And, like Turang, is 3 years out.  

And, if they have to include either Dubon or Arcia in any deal, they either bring a young experienced SS to the deal or a young mlb ready SS/2B.  Both should have some value.  

Again, the next 2 weeks are going to be telling.  I don't see a big sell off - but if things fall apart, moving guys like Albers, Claudio, and Thames should be considered.  
Quote 0 0
wissportsnet

Boys Basketball Alumni Round-up: February 21st, from @ColtonWilson23 #wisbb -- https://t.co/0K6CZzZWpf https://t.co/715tfpBGVS

wissportsnet

WSN15: Boys Basketball Top Teams #12 -- Two NCAA Division I players at one WIAA Division 4 school = state champions… https://t.co/1MThqzce9L

wissportsnet

Predicting winners of every state wrestling title plus a look By The Numbers, from @Nate_Woelfel -… https://t.co/HgU1bLP7d6

wissportsnet

Join the free Boys Basketball Playoff Pick 'Em Contest; Staff picks coming Tuesday #wisbb -- https://t.co/Y6yTA3OgP8 https://t.co/hA6Uyw9uje