cameroncrazies02
Westgate Las Vegas released its projected win totals for the 2018-2019 NBA season and it's a doozy.  These are the over/under bets.  The number next to their team is the over/under of their wins and the parentheses are the +/- wins from last year. 

East-
Atlanta-23.5 (-.5)
Chicago-27.5 (+.5)
New York-29.5 (+.5)
Cleveland-30.5 (-19.5)
Orlando-31.5 (+6.5)
Brooklyn-32.5 (+4.5)
Charlotte-35.5
Detroit-37.5 (-1.5)
Miami-41.5 (-2.5)
Washington-44.5 (+1)
Milwaukee-46.5 (+2.5)
Indiana-47.5 (-.5)
Philadelphia-54.5 (+2.5)
Toronto-54.5 (-4.5)
Boston-57.5 (+2.5)

West-
Sacramento-25.5 (-1.5)
Phoenix-28.5 (+6.5)
Dallas-34.5 (+10.5)
Memphis-34.5 (+12.5)
LA Clippers-35.5 (-5.5)
Portland-41.5 (-7.5)
San Antonio-43.5 (-3.5)
Minnesota-44.5 (-2.5)
New Orleans-45.5 (-2.5)
Denver-47.5 (+1.5)
LA Lakers-48.5 (+12.5)
Utah-48.5 (+.5)
OKC-50.5 (+2.5)
Houston-54.5 (-11.5)
Golden State-62.5 (+4.5)

Biggest risers-LA Lakers, Memphis, Dallas, Phoenix, Orlando
Biggest fallers-Cleveland, Houston, Portland, Toronto, LA Clippers

Some of these are preposterous.  Now, this is a very tough thing to do, they have to calculate every game and how teams will fair against each other without knowing the major injuries, so I can't say I'd do any better, but here are my biggest takeaways....

Dallas getting DeAndre Jordan and Luka Doncic propelled them 10.5 games better to still a losing team.  They have a solid core, but a very poor bench.  This will come down to how Doncic performs in his rookie year and Dennis Smith progression.  

Orlando is not 6.5 games better.  They virtually brought back the same team and drafted Mo Bamba.  Short of a Vucevic trade or a major shake up, the sole drafting of Bamba does not make them drastically better.  I have no idea where that projection even begins to come from.

CLE dropped to 30.5 wins which seems questionable, but it's so tough to imagine what this team is going to play like.  They brought in Sexton but lost Lebron.  Those are their major changes.  That does, in fact, seem like a 20 game drop off, but it'll be interesting to see how this team performs without Lebron.

HOU being 11.5 games worse is crazy to think about, considering they are bringing back Paul, Harden and Capela and added Carmelo, but it just goes to show losing Mbah A Moute and Ariza will hurt them drastically.

I was shocked to see TOR lose 4.5 games of ground.  Granted, they had a phenomenal year and this may be more of a regression to the mean, but with CLE falling off the map, TOR has a chance to still be a top 2 team in the East adding Kawhi and Green.  I thought -2.5 was more likely.

I'm not sure where the LAC projection comes from, outside of losing Jordan.  Jordan is certainly an impactful player, but they brought in two lottery rookies who will vie for playing time, Pat Beverley is back and they'll be much more well-rounded.

Milwaukee only gaining 2 games is a bit disrespectful and if I was to ever bet on anything in my life, I would put A LOT of money on the over.  Last years team was a 50 win team and should've been except for some freak injuries with bad timing.  Adding Bud, bringing in two much better fits in Lopez and Ilyasova makes them a lot better than 2 more wins.
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gstacy
I think Milwaukee will struggle to stay above .500 I think this team will struggle defensively.
Quote 0 0
db11
Only way MKE is under .500 is if Giannis goes down to injury.
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cameroncrazies02
gstacy wrote:
I think Milwaukee will struggle to stay above .500 I think this team will struggle defensively.


This is an interesting take.  I've read a ton of various off-season discussions about how the Bucks performed from analysts outside of Bucks fandom and WI sports and heard a lot of reasons why the Bucks had a not great off-season.  The most overwhelming was that they let Jabari walk when he signed, essentially what could be a 1 year deal in CHI.  Others ridiculed not fixing their cap sheet (?) and signing Ilyasova to the 3/21 (2/14) contract, but I don't think I've heard anyone say they will be bad defensively.

The Bucks defense was a bottom half of the league group last year.  Attribute that almost entirely to their horrendous scheme.  They didn't protect the rim or the 3 point line.  They allowed some of the highest percentage of 3P shooting in the league and it sustained throughout the year.  And it was because of that heavy blitzing scheme forcing pick and roll defenders to double ball handlers leaving the weak side defense vulnerable to open 3's.  The theory was it creates turnovers, but that was caught on quickly by teams two years ago.  Budenholzer is going to play a much more safe defensive scheme, a lot of man to man and letting turnovers come naturally, rather than trying to force them.  The Bucks have plenty of good man to man defenders and Lopez and Ilyasova are that.  They may not be great in space, but they'll be better than Parker and Henson were at strength in the paint and D'ing up their guys.  I've beaten this point relentlessly but Bud created god-fearing defenders with his schemes over the years dating back to Paul Millsap being in discussion for DPOY.

I don't think people realize how terrible of a coach Jason Kidd was.  And Joe Prunty was a branch of the Kidd tree.  They both didn't have an offensive scheme.  It was get out in transition, if you're slowed down, break your guy down 1 on 1.  That was it!  There was no movement, there was no effective pick and roll, nothing.  And Kidd stood strong in his stance on his defense, getting offensive about it to the media.  Bud has notoriously been a heavy switcher of his schemes.  He played an ultra aggressive scheme in the days of Horford, Millsap, Korver and Teague, then went to a much more conservative system with his younger teams so as to not overload them.

If you want to knock something about the Bucks, it is that they were a bad rebounding team and Bud's teams historically havent' been great rebounders.  I again will state, the blitzing scheme created MASSIVE holes in the rebounding department.  When shots went up, guys were typically not zoned against an opposing player, and they were susceptible to weak side open long shots.  Long shots bounce off the rim and are more unpredictable.  That created a ton of second chance opportunities for opposing teams.  Lopez is a bad rebounder by the numbers, but advanced stats show that when Lopez is on the floor, his teams rebound at a top 10 rate.  He may not be able to get up and go after high rebounds, but he's a big, strong body that takes up space.  Conversely, John Henson is the anti-Lopez.  He has long arms to grab rebounds, but he takes up minimal space and gets bounced around in the lane like a pinball.  To be a good rebounding team, unless you have a top 5 rebounder in the league, it's a team thing.  And the Bucks have some of the best rebounders at their positions in Bledsoe, Middleton and Giannis.
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gstacy
so according to your assessment, swap out Kidd for Bud and new roster= 10 more wins? I mean, you listed quit a few changes. Parker moving on, fired a bad coach, hired a coach who is head and shoulders above the last one, added a couple of nice free agents. add that all up sounds like 10 more wins at least. se we could be looking at 58-60 win season?
Quote 0 0
cameroncrazies02
I wouldn't say 10 wins.  That'd be 54 wins which is the very top end of my prediction.  My range of prediction, barring major injury, is 49-54 wins.
Twitter: @TheSpangover

Check out diener and my new website @ http://www.thirddegreewithcc.weebly.com

Newest additions
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Quote 0 0
gstacy
a new coach alone should be worth 5-6 wins? Shedding Parker=+5 more wins or no? add Lopez and Ersan shooting prowess and rebounding ability, 10 win improvement shouldn't be a problem. Not to mention another year for Kris Giannis and Bledsoe to work together and improve their cohesiveness. The younger players maturing .
pick of the litter for hiring a new coach. cap space to bring in who you wanted. got rid of a problem player.
Quote 0 0
gstacy
If you just subtract the "cancer" which was Parker, add Ersan, Brook and Woods, just removing Parker should be worth 5 wins alone. Add the new toys and that's another 3-4 wins at a minimum. Replacing a Kidd with a Bud? 8 wins? add in the returnees maturing and becoming a more cohesive unit? New arena?
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